Can the Chinese housing bubble defy gravity

The property price-to-income ratio is between 20 to 40 in many cities of China.  The bubble is a fact.

Can China defy gravity by sustaining the relatively high property price.  In theory, it can because the average income will eventually sextuple to reach the level of developed countries so the price-to-income ratio can be brought down by the increase of the denominator. The chance for this to happen is probably very slim.

It is unlikely that the price can be sustained to wait for the income to catch up. When it comes to finance, the herd mentality is extremely strong in China. Many Chinese People invest in some assets simply because they see other people doing it. The herd mentality causes wide swings of market.  It happened during the extraordinary run of the Chinese stock market form 2005 to 2007.  The Shanghai index almost sextupled in a short period of 2 years.  An person who earned her MBA from a top tier university used to tell me that she was buying stocks because she saw how well others were doing by investing in stocks. If such a person who is supposed to be savy in business and fiancé has such a strong herd mentality, how can we expect rationality from ordinary Chinese.  The bubble apparently could not defy gravity. It lost 70% during its burst.  The housing bubble in China is also driven by the herd mentality.  People keep buying properties simply because other people do and they are doing well due to the self-feeding positive feedback resulted from the herd mentality.

There is another force driving the Chinese housing bubble - the deeply corrupted totalitarian regime has been making a lot of money by selling public lands.  The regime may try to maintain the bubble to a certain degree for the sake of holding to their power.

This article was updated on 09:53:55 2024-03-23