The difficulty of understanding China

The regime in China operates in a black box, and there is no free press in China.  This makes it very difficult for people, including Chinese, to understand China truly .  The Diaoyu Islands dispute related violence shows that many people in China are still easily fooled and played by the regime.  Foreigners often have perceptions of China that are far from the reality.

There are certain groups who know China well.  One group are Chinese government officials because they know the intricate corruption inside and the resentment outside, but they do not speak the truth publicly for obvious reasons.  The other group are businessmen because they have to deal with the regime, and are usually well connected with them.  In the meantime, they have to deal with consumers and business partners in the complex semi-lawless Chinese world.  They usually do not speak the truth publicly either in order to protect their interests.  One has to watch what they do with their families and assets to have some sense about what they really think.  Many of them are moving their families and assets overseas.   The recent new expression “naked official” illustrates this trend.  It means an official whose family members have all emigrated leaving him alone in China.

Nowadays, Chinese people have increasing freedom on the internet despite the Great Firewall.  Many ordinary Chinese express their thoughts fairly freely, especially on foreign social media which they have to escape the GFW to reach.  They usually express great resentment of the regime.  One could get some sense about the feelings and lives of ordinary Chinese from their online posts.  When it comes to the politics in China, most posts are purely based on speculations though the speculations are often reasonable.

Many foreign visitors in China do not live in the same world as the ordinary Chinese.  Only a small portion of them can get so close to their Chinese friends that they see the real China and hear the true stories and feelings.